Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 203.616674 241.544123 286.612815 344.698559 418.427068 510.054385 6.343977e+02
2025-10-19 160.328915 206.665303 268.033763 357.326852 487.560298 676.689511 9.843895e+02
2025-10-26 134.083041 183.123464 253.281324 364.981448 546.502600 846.132628 1.417992e+03
2025-11-02 115.287481 164.495767 239.195808 366.945180 593.914496 1012.352723 1.936826e+03
2025-11-09 99.660759 147.071175 222.449545 358.950901 619.991123 1149.111017 2.483840e+03
2025-11-16 87.634855 132.999341 207.984676 350.611407 641.639231 1284.814137 3.127171e+03
2025-11-23 77.949878 121.141702 194.947973 341.463137 658.196991 1416.044326 3.869867e+03
2025-11-30 74.980173 120.006853 200.217356 368.373920 760.424243 1805.075014 5.837771e+03
2025-12-07 69.546515 113.766474 195.032163 372.641109 811.947048 2089.336218 7.829469e+03
2025-12-14 65.480396 109.417591 192.672429 382.348723 880.690484 2469.687175 1.093767e+04
2025-12-21 60.849588 103.439460 186.173375 381.235288 920.449966 2783.302715 1.440798e+04
2025-12-28 59.574631 103.642475 192.189438 411.072086 1061.171002 3587.085308 2.381967e+04
2026-01-04 57.650517 102.505052 195.574123 436.414490 1204.637606 4577.116229 4.056275e+04
2026-01-11 55.310966 100.261790 196.243711 455.167501 1337.849584 5702.308667 6.932866e+04
2026-01-18 52.638374 97.011539 194.139038 465.896072 1449.384040 6886.473745 1.170201e+05
2026-01-25 49.746708 92.974597 189.611012 468.631337 1532.901144 8049.175891 1.933107e+05
2026-02-01 46.390595 87.600105 181.172434 457.773426 1555.856107 8841.674745 2.879592e+05
2026-02-08 43.351087 82.633934 173.115493 446.457399 1573.068726 9651.232853 4.359070e+05
2026-02-15 40.558797 77.962582 165.225632 434.067166 1580.797005 10425.556410 6.636298e+05
2026-02-22 40.306350 78.943953 171.717352 470.590918 1851.277968 14570.634881 2.608625e+06
2026-03-01 38.673464 76.613517 169.329103 476.403038 1968.700481 17455.605798 7.967649e+06
2026-03-08 37.456246 75.133298 169.006491 489.645784 2140.150431 21879.575081 4.952177e+07
2026-03-15 35.765963 72.387536 164.913606 488.125442 2224.433662 25408.612647 4.535170e+08